Climate Science: What Does it Say? | Dr. Richard Lindzen | EP 320

🌰 Wisdom in a Nutshell

Essential insights distilled from the video.

1. Actions have consequences; freedom and ethics align against tyranny.
2. Climate change debate is complex, driven by repetition, not models.
3. Academic background in physics and atmospheric physics, funding challenges in climate research.
4. Academic system faces challenges in granting, peer review, and administrative overload.
5. CO2 focus in environmental concerns led to control over energy sector.
6. Human adaptability and access to energy are key to environmental preservation.
7. Greenhouse effect is not the sole determinant of temperature changes.
8. Climate change statements can be misinterpreted, leading to misguided actions.
9. Climate change narrative is alarmist, not supported by evidence.
10. Global temperature metric is misleading, driven by orbital variations.
11. Fluid dynamics models provide valuable insights despite lack of convergence.
12. Adapt to climate change by being honest and open-minded.

📚 Introduction

In this blog post, we will explore a range of topics including the concept of history, the debate around climate change, the challenges in the academic system, and the impact of climate change on the economy and our ability to adapt. Each topic provides unique insights and perspectives that will broaden our understanding and encourage critical thinking. Let's dive in!

🔍 Wisdom Unpacked

Delving deeper into the key ideas.

1. Actions have consequences; freedom and ethics align against tyranny.

The concept of history, as created by the Hebrews, teaches us that our actions have consequences and that we can't manipulate reality or treat others instrumentally without facing consequences. This is evident in the struggle for freedom against tyranny, where the highest ethical spirit aligns itself with the cause of freedom. It's important to hold villains accountable, but also to provide them with opportunities for learning and growth before facing the ultimate price.

2. Climate change debate is complex, driven by repetition, not models.

The debate around climate change is complex, with disagreement on the extent of warming caused by CO2 and the role of water vapor in climate change models. The issue is not driven by models, but by repetition, with some studies found to be bogus. The perception of climate change is influenced by various factors, including planetary orbit and ocean currents. The claim that 97% of scientists agree on the role of carbon dioxide in greenhouse warming does not necessarily mean they believe in tipping points or catastrophic climate change. The future is uncertain, and we should focus on long-term perspectives.

3. Academic background in physics and atmospheric physics, funding challenges in climate research.

Dr. Linzen's academic background includes a degree in physics from Harvard and graduate work in applied mathematics, with a focus on atmospheric physics. He conducted research on fluid motions, chemistry, and radiative transfer, and worked on problems like tides in the atmosphere and the quasi-biannual oscillation. His experience at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the University of Chicago led him to accept a tenure offer at Harvard. He later became the Gordon McKay professor and held a chair at MIT. The most influential book in history, which has a significant impact on people, discusses the challenges faced by the author when pursuing research on climate change. The author received funding for meteorological research but faced rejection for climate-related projects. NASA and the Department of Energy were initially open to funding, but later faced restrictions. The author shares an example of MIT's administration rejecting a talk on Chaos Theory due to the speaker's position on climate change.

4. Academic system faces challenges in granting, peer review, and administrative overload.

The academic system is facing challenges such as administrative overload, a focus on overhead costs, and a shift in the nature of students entering physics and math. The granting system has evolved, with a disproportionate number of administrators and a reliance on grants for career advancement. This has led to a situation where questioning the current narrative in climate research can make it difficult to obtain grants. The peer review process has also evolved, with a focus on challenging the status quo. The dominance of critical race theory in every discipline allows individuals with little background to dominate. The university system is facing an administrative invasion, with a disproportionate number of administrators compared to faculty and students. This has led to a focus on overhead costs, which can be as high as 50% of grant funding. Scientists in the United States spend a significant amount of time writing proposals for grants with a low success rate. This takes away from their time for actual research and can lead to studying trendy topics rather than pursuing meaningful research.

5. CO2 focus in environmental concerns led to control over energy sector.

The environmental concerns and power over the energy sector, which began in the '60s, led to the focus on CO2 as a key factor in global warming. The global mean temperature metric started increasing in the '70s, and CO2 became a focus. The International Geophysical Year initiated a CO2 measurement program at Manolo Observatory in Hawaii, which showed a significant increase in CO2 levels since the industrial era. The issue of environmental concerns and power over the energy sector was driven by a desire to control the energy sector, seen as the heart of industrial development and prosperity. Some people resented the aspirations of ordinary people to live decently and have modern conveniences, which was seen as a form of envy.

6. Human adaptability and access to energy are key to environmental preservation.

The debate on the natural landscape is divided between those who advocate for untouched landscapes and those who believe in the Malthusian theory of population growth. However, this theory is flawed as it doesn't account for human adaptability. Despite predictions of resource depletion, India's population has grown and they are now food exporters. The amount of food produced globally is still increasing. The focus on non-fertilized food would lead to starvation. Believing in cataclysmic claims without scientific basis is not only unsupported, but it also impoverishes societies and makes them less resilient. Providing cheap and clean energy and eradicating absolute poverty can lead to people caring about the long-term and working for environmental preservation at a local level, which is a more effective way of taking care of the planet.

7. Greenhouse effect is not the sole determinant of temperature changes.

The greenhouse effect, while significant, is not the sole determinant of temperature changes. The Coriolis effect and the movement of weather systems play a crucial role in determining temperature differences. The significance of CO2 is lessened if water vapor does not amplify its effects. Positive feedback loops, assumed in climate models, are not credible scientifically. The accuracy of temperature changes is limited by the small magnitude of temperature changes compared to the potential range. The greenhouse effect is useful in comparing the climates of Venus, Mars, and Mercury, but it is not as relevant for the Earth's climate. The changes in the Earth's climate involve minuscule temperature changes compared to the temperature differences between the planets. Additionally, there are political challenges as economic models use flawed climate models as axioms, leading to unreliable predictions over a 100-year period.

8. Climate change statements can be misinterpreted, leading to misguided actions.

The statement that most of the warming since 1960 is due to man, although only a half degree, suggests that the climate is relatively insensitive. However, this statement was misinterpreted as a call to action, with Senators McCain and Lieberman advocating for immediate action. This highlights the potential for misinterpretation and the need for careful consideration of climate change statements.

9. Climate change narrative is alarmist, not supported by evidence.

The climate change narrative, fueled by political funding and the attention-grabbing nature of doom-saying prognostications, has gained traction. However, the scientific evidence suggests that the impact of climate change on our economy and ability to adapt will be minimal. The probability of adapting to climate change is 100%, and the field of climate science has grown significantly, leading to a large number of people calling themselves climate scientists without a deep understanding of the physics and chemistry. The academic publishing process can be challenging, and the lack of support for climate research can deprive us of expert voices in shaping our economic decisions. The climate system has degrees of freedom and is not likely to experience tipping points. Feedback loops exist, but they are not runaway.

10. Global temperature metric is misleading, driven by orbital variations.

The global temperature metric, used to assess climate change, is based on averaging temperature anomalies, which can be misleading. The metric lacks scatter, making it difficult to analyze, and it was not widely discussed in textbooks on climate in the past. The metric became popular with global cooling and warming because it provided a singular metric to show one or the other. However, most people are unable to read graphs and only see the overall trend. The major drivers of climate change are the orbital variations of the Earth, which produce changes in solar radiation incident on the Earth. These variations can lead to glaciation and the lack thereof. The effect of carbon dioxide warming is much smaller compared to the effects of glaciation. Additionally, the feedback loops in the climate system are intrinsic and not a result of external factors.

11. Fluid dynamics models provide valuable insights despite lack of convergence.

Fluid dynamics, a complex field with no known convergence point for models, often relies on damping for stability, despite its lack of physical basis. However, models can still provide valuable insights, such as simplifying complex systems and promoting new ideas. Approximating fluid dynamics is challenging due to the many degrees of freedom involved. While it may be difficult to predict the exact behavior of a fluid system, statistical forecasts and approximations can provide useful information about the effects of surface roughness on flow rate.

12. Adapt to climate change by being honest and open-minded.

The impact of climate change will vary, with some areas experiencing sea level rise. Adaptation can be achieved by dressing appropriately for the local conditions. It's important to be honest with oneself and not falsify beliefs, as this can shape perceptions. Society can break down, with older scientists having more freedom to express their views. Younger people may not have this luxury, and being canceled can be a significant setback.

💡 Actionable Wisdom

Transformative tips to apply and remember.

Embrace critical thinking and seek a deeper understanding of complex topics. Question the narratives presented to you and explore different perspectives. Take the time to educate yourself on the scientific method and the limitations of models. Engage in open and respectful discussions to foster a culture of intellectual curiosity. By doing so, you will be better equipped to navigate the complexities of our world and make informed decisions.

📽️ Source & Acknowledgment

Link to the source video.

This post summarizes Jordan B Peterson's YouTube video titled "Climate Science: What Does it Say? | Dr. Richard Lindzen | EP 320". All credit goes to the original creator. Wisdom In a Nutshell aims to provide you with key insights from top self-improvement videos, fostering personal growth. We strongly encourage you to watch the full video for a deeper understanding and to support the creator.